The health of His Holiness the Dalai Lama is in the news again. He has been taken to New Dehli for tests because of pain in his arms. I understand doctors found no serious problem.
However, this reminds us that the 14th Dalai Lama, who is now 73 years old, is as impermanent as the rest of us. And at the moment, His Holiness is the glue holding most of Tibetan Buddhism together. There is concern that no effective leadership will emerge when he's gone.
Michael Powell writes in the New York Times about what is at stake for Tibetans without a charismatic leader. "Slowly, ineluctably, the Tibetans become just another of the globe’s landless peoples lost in the shadow of a rising superpower."
Powell's article provides a good analysis of the issues surrounding the choice of the 15th Dalai Lama and what options are being explored. Among other possibilities, His Holiness the 14th may choose a successor before he dies to eliminate intra-sectarian squabbles such as the Karmapa controversy of the Kagyu school. Kagyu, one of the four major schools of Tibetan Buddhism, has splintered over the choice of its spiritual head, the 17th Karmapa. Now there are two karmapas, and each has his supporters and detractors. No resolution is in sight.
It's also almost certain that China will intervene and appoint the new Dalai Lama, as they did with the Panchen Lama.
There is strong sentiment within Tibetan Buddhism in favor of promoting one of the two Kagyu karmapas, Ogyen Trinley Dorje, to act as a spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism until the 15th Dalai Lama is ready to take on the job. His Holiness the 14th has yet to endorse that idea, however.


The topic is an interesting one from various perspectives. China seems very much like it will try to “pick” the next Dalai Lama, and do so for their own gain. People outside (and some inside) of China will not recognize such a nomination though.
I can see good reasons for and against having the Dalai Lama pick someone to take his place until his replacement is of age. Definitely not a decision to be rushed into. Buddhism will continue on though regardless. I mean Buddhism didn’t collapse after the first Buddha died right?
The Dalai Lama has time and again shown himself to be a very intellectual person so I feel confident in whatever his decision will be.
Kendall — the danger is to Tibetan Buddhism, which is unique in many respects. Tibetan Buddhism has been virtually flushed out of Tibet. The monasteries allowed to operate in Tibet are tightly controlled by the government of China and are mostly kept open as tourist attractions. So now Tibetans and Tibetan Buddhism are scattered all over the planet, and His Holiness is the only thing giving Tibetan Buddhism any cohesion. I’m sure it will continue, but in what form? That’s the question.
Actually, this “Karmapa-activity” of Dalai Lama by no means is able to “eliminate” the Karmapa issue within Kagyu school. For the sole an simple reason that Dalai Lama as the leader of one of main schools, Gelugpa, have absolutely neither right nor authority to choose a head of another main school. Nor his status of political leader of Tibet and Tibetans gives him that right. It seems he already started to realize what consequences his old decision to support Orgyen Trinlay led to, and don’ exactly know how to resolve this situation nicely…
And concerning his choice of Orgyen Trinlay as his successor, there are many doubts for how it will serve a Tibetan cause. Because now all buddhists and, as I know, tibetans respect H.H. Dalai Lama limitless, but when (and if) Orgyen Trinlay will enter the “all-Tibetan office”, the world can’t forget about united Tibetan Buddhism. Half of Kagyu and even whole regions like Bhutan will be lost for Tibetan government forever.
Leo Golan — regarding Ogyen Trinley Dorje, His Holiness the Dalai Lama did not by himself choose him to be Karmapa. He supported the position of a majority of the Kagyu higher lamas. The idea of choosing Ogyen Trinley as a regent is also coming from popular demand of Tibetans. I don’t believe the Dalai Lama has made any public statements about it.
I don’t take an official position as to which of the two karmapas is the “real” one. My understanding is that the faction in the Kagyu school supporting Trinley Thaye Dorje as karmapa is a minority, and mostly in Europe. I’ve noticed many Buddhists in Europe have the idea that it’s only the Dalai Lama supporting Ogyen Trinley, but my understanding is that a majority of Tibetans outside of Europe recognize Ogyen Trinley as the karmapa.
Where did I read (in the last few years anyway) that HH the Dalai Lama suggested that #15 might be a layperson? This would be a reincarnation of #6. Must give us pause.
truthseeker, #5 — I’m not a Tibetan Buddhist, but it’s my understanding that every Dalai Lama is a rebirth of all the other ones, including #6.
Interesting comment re a layperson in succession.
Sends my thoughts to the Vimalakirti Sutra translated by Robert Thurman.
In that sutra, a layperson demonstrates significant Buddha wisdom.
I do not know if HHDL aimed Thurman in the direction of that particular sutra. ?